2nd Qtr GDP - One More Look
Just to put in better perspective what really happened in our economy last quarter (and I won't bother you anymore about it, I promise):
Any good news was from more Obama bucks and a big drop in imports - the rest is rather grim*. I guess it's good that the government is picking up some slack, but these are hardly green shoots - more like blue shoots.
*The only positive is that of the $87 billion drop in investment, 31% of that came from a big reduction in inventories, so in theory production should start to pick up once inventories are exhausted.
Any good news was from more Obama bucks and a big drop in imports - the rest is rather grim*. I guess it's good that the government is picking up some slack, but these are hardly green shoots - more like blue shoots.
*The only positive is that of the $87 billion drop in investment, 31% of that came from a big reduction in inventories, so in theory production should start to pick up once inventories are exhausted.
posted by ziel | 7/31/2009 05:49:00 PM
4 Comments:
I'm expecting an increase in GNP for Q3, but it will probably be small. The biggest question is Q4. If it's either another contraction or slower than ~1%, we're screwed.
"Just to put in better perspective what really happened in our economy last quarter (and I won't bother you anymore about it, I promise)"
I appreciate the GDP analysis. Most reporters and bloggers just pass on the GDP figures without question as they're released by the BEA, even though its at least as bogus as the official unemployment numbers.
thanks Uwi. Amazing how little detailed analysis of these numbers even in the business press - or what passes for it.
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