NOW it's About the Oil

Could this be the beginning of the end game in Iraq? It's a country, and someone's going to take over - someone always does. Countries don't just continue in chaos indefinitely - sooner or later someone will prevail. And in a country with massive supplies of oil under ground, you can be sure someone will take charge. Muqtada Al Sadr seems to have decided this might be the time for a little putsch.

Heavy fighting broke out Tuesday in two of Iraq’s largest cities, as Iraqi ground forces and helicopters mounted a huge operation to break the grip of the Shiite militias controlling Basra, and Iraqi forces clashed with militias in Baghdad. The fighting threatened to destabilize a long-term truce that had helped reduce the level of violence in the five-year-old Iraq war.

I won't hold my breath waiting for the Iraqi army to prove itself as a fighting force, but perhaps someone in the command structure has figured out that if he can control Basra and Baghdad, there could be a nice little $100 billion bonus waiting down the line. Al Sadr has certainly figured that out, and after a year of rebuilding his forces, appears to be geared up for a good hard fight.

The man in charge of Iraqi forces in southern Iraq is Mohan al-Furayji. British portraits of the man from last fall paint him as the second coming of the Duke of Wellington (or of Saddam, at least), crediting him with allowing British troops in Basra to recede from active fighting. He does at least appear serious about this latest offensive. Interestingly, while Mohan was credited with being in charge a few days ago, news reports are now suggesting that Prime Minister al-Maliki is "directing the fighting." Hard to tell if this should be seen as suggesting confidence in the Iraqi forces (else Maliki would be scrambling to avoid too close an association with the offensive) or suggestive of an impending power struggle should the offensive succeed, or both.