Your Lying Eyes

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25 March 2008

NOW it's About the Oil

Could this be the beginning of the end game in Iraq? It's a country, and someone's going to take over - someone always does. Countries don't just continue in chaos indefinitely - sooner or later someone will prevail. And in a country with massive supplies of oil under ground, you can be sure someone will take charge. Muqtada Al Sadr seems to have decided this might be the time for a little putsch.
Heavy fighting broke out Tuesday in two of Iraq’s largest cities, as Iraqi ground forces and helicopters mounted a huge operation to break the grip of the Shiite militias controlling Basra, and Iraqi forces clashed with militias in Baghdad. The fighting threatened to destabilize a long-term truce that had helped reduce the level of violence in the five-year-old Iraq war.
I won't hold my breath waiting for the Iraqi army to prove itself as a fighting force, but perhaps someone in the command structure has figured out that if he can control Basra and Baghdad, there could be a nice little $100 billion bonus waiting down the line. Al Sadr has certainly figured that out, and after a year of rebuilding his forces, appears to be geared up for a good hard fight.

The man in charge of Iraqi forces in southern Iraq is Mohan al-Furayji. British portraits of the man from last fall paint him as the second coming of the Duke of Wellington (or of Saddam, at least), crediting him with allowing British troops in Basra to recede from active fighting. He does at least appear serious about this latest offensive. Interestingly, while Mohan was credited with being in charge a few days ago, news reports are now suggesting that Prime Minister al-Maliki is "directing the fighting." Hard to tell if this should be seen as suggesting confidence in the Iraqi forces (else Maliki would be scrambling to avoid too close an association with the offensive) or suggestive of an impending power struggle should the offensive succeed, or both.

5 Comments:

Anonymous i said...

Virtually all the oil in Iraq lies under Shiite or Kurdish territory. Meaning if Iraq become a confederacy, as has been proposed, the oil wealth will be controlled along tribal lines; that is, the Shiites and Kurds will have all the petrobucks to themselves. The Sunnis will never go along with that, and you can't blame them.

March 26, 2008 1:34 AM  
Blogger ziel said...

That's why a strong-man form of government would be preferable, because he could make sure the Sunnis get at least a piece of the pie - say 40% to Shiites, 30% to Kurds, 20% to Sunnis, 10% to him. Under a "democracy", the Sunnis would be shiite out of luck.

March 26, 2008 7:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I said wrote:


"Virtually all the oil in Iraq lies under Shiite or Kurdish territory. Meaning if Iraq become a confederacy, as has been proposed, the oil wealth will be controlled along tribal lines; that is, the Shiites and Kurds will have all the petrobucks to themselves. The Sunnis will never go along with that, and you can't blame them."


I said,
If only the neo-cons were as smart as you are and would have noticed that...........we wouldn't have even went over there. Im with Gary Brecher: Soddamned Insane was the best thing we could have had in Iraq as he was a bulwark against Iran and he held the thing together and would have had oil flowing. Holding Irag together took some brutality as Shiites, Kurds, Yezheidis, and Sunnis, and the few Christians dont naturally get along when placed in a barrel together. You'd think the neo-cons who push a "diverse" America would notice that also, but they can exlude everything that upsets their prejudices pretty blindly.

We have made a trillion dollar cluster fuck of epic proportions based on 9/11. Thats why I hope a Democrat wins in November. This has to be repudiated or we will be in Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan forever, Georgia, Chechnya, and possibly China and the rest of the 'stans--(about four of them) before its all over.
If we leave now............the Shia take over, and we face a greater Iran. Perhaps the neo-cons planned it that way so we'd be "stuck" there. I know that bunch gets together and schemes things out well in advance as they were arguing to attack Iraq as early as 98'. What a damned mess.



Oil pre Bush---$28 a Barrel
Oil now--------$100 a barrel.

Gold has went through the roof.


Mortgage crisis.


Credit Crisis.


Trade deficit balloned to record levels.


China financing more and more of our debt.


CEO pay higher and higher.


Average American having it harder and harder.


20 million illegals and no fence or no wall.


More tech workers displaced (and working as hackers on the side) than ever.



What a great president we have, what a leader, look at all he has given us!!!!?????????


I know, Ziel, Sorry.........Im relentlessly negative (actually if you knew me personally you'd note Im happy-go-lucky, but I refuse to find a silver lining in the tornado cloud that has been this administration). God bless America, we need it. M

March 26, 2008 5:09 PM  
Blogger Gringo_Malo said...

Actually, it is quite possible to establish a democracy in Iraq and simultaneously create a stable regime that will sell us oil at reasonable prices. We need only expel or expunge the indigenous population and resettle Iraq with Americans. (I'd go, given sufficient incentives.) If we're going to conquer every third world cesspool whose dictator looks cross-eyed at us, why not act like conquerors?

March 27, 2008 10:04 AM  
Anonymous i said...

Anonymous,

All you say is true; its hard to imagine that it could get any worse, but i'm convinced it could under a McCain Administration...

March 28, 2008 1:30 AM  

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