Your Lying Eyes

Dedicated to uncovering the truth that stands naked before your lying eyes.

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31 July 2009

2nd Qtr GDP - the Real Story

Not quite so many green shoots when you look under the covers:

GDP Total: -1.0%
Personal Consumption: -1.2%
Durable Goods: -7.1%
Investment: -20.4%
Nonresidential: -8.9%
Residential: -29.3%
Net Exports: +40.6%
Exports: -7%
Imports: -15%
Government: +5.6%
Federal: +10.9%
State and Local: +2.4%

Looking at how these items affected the overall GDP change, when we consider increased government spending and the reduction in imports those alone account for a +3.3% change in GDP. In contrast, all other productive activity experienced a drop of 4.5%.

Source: BEA

Calculations here.

Here's a comparison of the annualized % change in GDP 1Q to 2Q vs. the change 4Q08 to 1Q09:

Sector2Q Chg1Q Chg
Gross domestic product-1.0%-6.4%
Personal consumption expenditures-1.2%0.6%
      Durable goods-7.1%3.9%
      Nondurable goods-2.5%1.9%
Gross private domestic investment-20.4%-50.5%
   Fixed investment-13.5%-39.0%
         Equipment and software-9.0%-36.4%
Net exports of goods and services-40.6%-54.6%
Government consumption expenditures     and gross investment5.6%-2.6%
      National defense13.3%-5.1%
   State and local2.4%-1.6%


Anonymous JTH said...

Hey, what are you off today?
You got alot of time.
When can you get to the bottom of this PED names being released?

July 31, 2009 1:39 PM  
Blogger ziel said...

Yes I am home.
PED names - pretty much anybody who hit a lot of homers is on the list - or who had a dramatic career comeback - that's my guess.

July 31, 2009 2:33 PM  
Anonymous jth said...

But who is releasing the names?

July 31, 2009 3:59 PM  
Blogger ziel said...

Oh, some nebbish lawyer in the commissioner's office I believe

July 31, 2009 4:13 PM  

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