Your Lying Eyes

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04 August 2006

2006 Hurricane Forecast Revised Downward

In the news today it's reported that the 2006 hurricane season is now predicted to be less fearsome than previously thought and considerably less threatening than last year's. The hurricane forecast comes from Colorado State's William Gray, the World's Foremost Authority on Hurricanes.

Interestingly, the increase in hurricane activity in recent years has been linked by some scientists to global warming - a link which Dr. Gray vehemently denies. Gray is an irascible sort and a global warming skeptic generally. Here is a somewhat snarky profile of him (and other skeptics) from WaPo. I've seen Dr. Gray give testimony before a Senate committee and he is rather likable (if you like crusty, authoritative, avuncular types). Given that he has already been able to predict the heightened hurricane activity without relying on global warming, Occam's razor would seem to argue against the climate-change link.

Dr. Gray believes we are in a warming period of a natural cycle driven by thermohaline circulation. Needless to say, this idea is given rather short shrift among non-skeptics. Gray predicts that temperatures will begin to decline in a few years, putting him in the same company as my other favorite global-warming skeptic Dr. Abdusamatov, although his optimism is based on the Seuss solar cycle. Vacationing at the Jersey Shore in 100-degree weather encourages one to hope that Drs. Gray and Abdusamatov are on the right track, for whatever reason. On a bright note I have managed to tap into somebody's wireless ether nearby, giving me something to do since the beach is now in the sole custody of several million voracious greenhead flies.


Blogger Steve Sailer said...

Being at Colorado State, he's certainly well-situated to survive rising seas in case his forecasts don't work out.

August 04, 2006 11:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, that was my wife's (a Louisiana native & resident) reaction, sort of. She is thinking about predicting ski conditions in Colorado next winter.

August 05, 2006 1:19 AM  
Blogger ziel said...

It is funny that they're in Colorado. But of course what they do is NOT predict the course or intensity of specific hurricanes but long term hurricane activity. For that you need a wider vantage point - the Rockies provide an ideal perch to view the developing situation, unlike FLA or LA, where the altitude is so low you could barely see over the waves (if there were any). I'm pretty sure that's the reason, anyway.

August 05, 2006 7:39 AM  
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