The Return of the Ice Age

You remember Dr. Abdusamatov, the Russian astronomer who predicted another 'little ice age' later this century based on his readings of solar cycles? The release of "Ice Age 2" reminded me to follow up on this story. I found a Pravda article that provides a lot more background. [NOTE: Due to the rather unartful nature of the translation provided by english.pravda.ru, the following excerpts are best read in a thick Russian accent ala' Boris Badenov.]

First off, Dr. A. is no two-bit telescope jockey - he is "chief of the Space Exploration Department of the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian part of the International Space Station, Doctor of Physical Sciences, Khabibullo Abdusamatov" thank you very much. Dr. A. notes that there are three types of solar cycles - an 11 year, 100 year, and 200 year. As far as the 11 and 100 year cycles, not to worry. It's the 200 year cycle that's a real bugger.

The theory, the scientist told Pravda.Ru, was not considered a common scientific theory in the world. “The whole world has recognized the global warming theory, which pictures catastrophic situations in the future. I do not march in step with the world at this point. However, my theory has raised a certain interest in other countries. Hardly had I made a statement to RIA Novosti when I received several messages from scientists living in the USA, Iceland and other countries. They wanted to know more of my theory. They also want to know if I have delivered a detailed report on the matter and where it was published,” the scientist said.

Here's another roughly translated site proposing a powerful 200 year cycle and relating it to major historical events. However, Dr. Aleksei Babushkin is more reassuring:

Temperature changes periodically occur in different parts of the planet. However, it is not an irreversible process. Nature controls itself – a continuing universal drop of temperatures will not happen. All that global cold and heat has been made up by American film directors.

Another scientist, Pavel Demchenko, is not so quick to dismiss other climate change concerns:

An analysis of the average empirical evidence on Earth shows that the human civilization will most likely have to experience the global warming. The year 2005 set a record of the average temperature on the surface of the globe that has ever been registered during the history of scientific observations.

The global temperature increase of ~1 degree c. in the last century is consistent with the impact of Abdusamatov's 200-year cycle.

Mr. Abdusamatov's theory corresponds with the results of the research about the increase of Earth's temperatures in the 20th century, which makes many scientists continue the trend of the future warming. Abdusamatov has made an opposite conclusion about the cold period, which is to follow the warm era. However, both the possible cold and warm weather periods are characterized with a change of Earth's temperature by only one degree Centigrade.

Well, hopefully he's right. With the Chinese and Indian economies only starting to grow, significant reductions in greenhouse gases over the coming decades seem rather unlikely, barring some dramatic technology developments. I think global cooling will be a lot easier to deal with.