Your Lying Eyes

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19 September 2013

Predictions

First off, as California native Steve Sailer guessed, preliminary analysis suggests my prediction regarding California's NAEP performance is probably a losing bet...but more on that anon.

But trends can confound even the most obvious expectations. Thirty years ago, one very safe prediction I would have made would have been that bank branches would be very rare if not totally disappear. Already, by then, ATM's were springing up everywhere and growing exponentially. Even then you could deposit money in them. Clearly, the hand-writing was on the wall - the bank-branch's days were numbered.

Yes what has happened? Here in my neck of the woods, there are more bank branches, not less. When you walk into the bank, it seems there are just as many tellers as there were in 1983. The only difference is there aren't long lines of customers at each window - but the tellers are still there.

So what happened? I asked an accountant friend of mine and gave me some explanation about bringing in customers and blah-blah, but I still don't get it. Sure, my wife is down at the bank at least once a week, but she has her own small business and is lucky she can log onto Gmail. But in the 70's, everyone had to go to the bank once a week - now, very few ever need to visit in person. And yet, there's still all these bank branches everywhere.

Son one prediction I'm inclined to make now is that in 10 years most fast-food operations will be automated. I expect one or two employees to manage customers and check on operations - but surely all these other simple-minded operations can be automated.

But why should I have any faith in that prediction, when the no-brainer prediction of disappearing bank branches was so far off the mark?

5 Comments:

Blogger Steve Sailer said...

Are branch banks evidence of the expansion of the gray market economy?

September 21, 2013 2:43 AM  
Blogger Dan Kurt said...

Guys, let's use our brains. The Federal Reserve is (has been) flooding the banks with money. In recent years it has been circa a Trillion dollars a year which has not been recycled in many loans but kept as "excess reserves" and perhaps as bricks and mortar branch offices as well as (redundant, unneeded) tellers and loan officers. Just saying.

Dan Kurt

September 21, 2013 11:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With unprecedented debt, levels of non-European migration, lessened social trust, lessened patriotism of the populace (quick: how patriotic were all those veiled teenage girls I saw getting off a school bus? yup, not very), continued outsourcing of jobs and insourcing of construction labor, and two parties both ashamed to even seek the native vote, I think we are entering uncharted waters. Probably going to be difficult to predict navigation therein
Different ship, different crew, and a AA lifetime achievement award winner as our captain. I really want ANOTHER black to win the Democratic primary, to remind the white left that they will be a powerless minority in the future of their own making. If Jindall could win, somehow, the GOP nomination, it could be a wake-up moment for shareholder-cans. If this were all happening in a parallel universe or novel, Id enjoy it. We might get to live our own schaudenfreude. Lefties have been doing it for years. :)

September 26, 2013 2:19 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Let me add a prediction if I might: the Affordable Care Act will not significantly reduce illnesses nor will it significantly increase the life expectancy.

October 12, 2013 11:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama is the biggest Racist Americas ever seen since the Klu Klux Clan... Actually he is a Black Klu Klux Clan. Impeach Obama.

October 25, 2013 10:07 AM  

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