Predictions - Anyone Wanna Bet?
In the spirit of the famous Simon/Ehrlich bet, here are some predictions for 2023. Any takers?
- Real GDP growth will average less than 2.5% per year over the next decade
- The Gap - as measured by NAEP 8th grade math scores among black and white students nationwide - will be greater than 0.9 standard deviations.
- California's performance on the 8th grade math NAEP will not improve relative to the U.S. mean (in standard deviation units) over it's 2013 performance.
- The price of oil - despite decreased demand - will be no lower than the average price during 2013.
- The Social Security revenue estimates of the CBO with regard to the 2013 Comprehensive Immigration Reform act will prove to be too optimistic (as a % of GDP). The CBO estimates of the immigrant population in the U.S. as of 2023 will prove to be too low.
- The share of total income earned by the bottom 20% of American families (measured in terms of family income) will be lower than it is today; this will also hold true for wealth.
- Neither Libya nor Egypt will have a functioning democracy.
- Average global temperature, as measured by the GISS, will not be lower than today.
- The per capita GDP of Brazil, measured in $PPP, relative to that of Switzerland in terms of dollar difference, will not be improved.