Global Warming - What Me Worry?
I have two reasons for doubting that global warming will end up being the disaster Al Gore warns it will be. The first is Greg Cochran's bright future, which promises to not only bring about unlimited, cheap, carbonless energy within a few generations, but to increase the wealth of man even more dramatically than did the Industrial Revolution, an unbelievable abundance with which to "make the deserts bloom, put two cars in every pot, and end world poverty, while simultaneously fighting global warming."
The other is the possibility that natural variations in the sun's output are causing much more of our warming than climatologists think. Climate models attribute minuscule amounts of warming to increased solar activity. I've noted before that Russian astronomer Khabibulo Abdussamatov believes very strongly that current warming is due to the sun and that we're in for some really cold times a few decades hence. Now there is a new study from scientists at JPL claiming to have found signals of the sun's 88 and 200-year cycles in accounts of Nile flooding from the middle ages (pdf). If the effects of the sun can be found in such coarse historical records, is it so outlandish to suppose that it might have played a significant role in the half-degree rise in temperatures of the last couple decades?
We should know in about ten years, I think, how serious the warming is. But if we get moving now on the technology that Cochran foresees, we'll be covered however the climate plays out.
The other is the possibility that natural variations in the sun's output are causing much more of our warming than climatologists think. Climate models attribute minuscule amounts of warming to increased solar activity. I've noted before that Russian astronomer Khabibulo Abdussamatov believes very strongly that current warming is due to the sun and that we're in for some really cold times a few decades hence. Now there is a new study from scientists at JPL claiming to have found signals of the sun's 88 and 200-year cycles in accounts of Nile flooding from the middle ages (pdf). If the effects of the sun can be found in such coarse historical records, is it so outlandish to suppose that it might have played a significant role in the half-degree rise in temperatures of the last couple decades?
We should know in about ten years, I think, how serious the warming is. But if we get moving now on the technology that Cochran foresees, we'll be covered however the climate plays out.
posted by ziel | 3/23/2007 08:05:00 AM
4 Comments:
So, what if you, and Cochran, are wrong - are you going to write letters of apology to your grandkids?
No, I don't think so. There's no viable alternative to addressing global warming - other than massive investments in nuclear energy. But even that seems like a long shot - there's about 5 billion people living in lands that I wouldn't trust building and maintaining nuclear energy. Investing in self-replicating technologies seems like an obviously better choice.
Or do you really think we can stop global warming by buying fluorescent bulbs and driving Priuses?
Beats me (and just about everyone else)
Let's hope you're right.
It is quite a hot topic to talk about. There are scientist that they are talking about a decrease in the temperature and there are such thing like global warming. All those scientists have evidence to back their hypothesis up.
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