Your Lying Eyes

Dedicated to uncovering the truth that stands naked before your lying eyes.

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10 September 2013

Predictions - Anyone Wanna Bet?

In the spirit of the famous Simon/Ehrlich bet, here are some predictions for 2023. Any takers?

  • Real GDP growth will average less than 2.5% per year over the next decade
  • The Gap - as measured by NAEP 8th grade math scores among black and white students nationwide - will be greater than 0.9 standard deviations.
  • California's performance on the 8th grade math NAEP will not improve relative to the U.S. mean (in standard deviation units) over it's 2013 performance.
  • The price of oil - despite decreased demand - will be no lower than the average price during 2013.
  • The Social Security revenue estimates of the CBO with regard to the 2013 Comprehensive Immigration Reform act will prove to be too optimistic (as a % of GDP). The CBO estimates of the immigrant population in the U.S. as of 2023 will prove to be too low.
  • The share of total income earned by the bottom 20% of American families (measured in terms of family income) will be lower than it is today; this will also hold true for wealth.
  • Neither Libya nor Egypt will have a functioning democracy.
  • Average global temperature, as measured by the GISS, will not be lower than today.
  • The per capita GDP of Brazil, measured in $PPP, relative to that of Switzerland in terms of dollar difference, will not be improved.


Anonymous Ian said...

I think you mean predictions for 2023, yeah? Anyway - seems like solid prognosticating.

September 10, 2013 1:39 AM  
Blogger ziel said...


I obviously picked some easy ones based on HBD notions and gave myself some good buffers. 2.5% GDP growth is probably way too optimistic, as is 0.9 standard deviations. Yet these predictions would be a nightmare scenario for almost all policymakers.

September 10, 2013 8:33 AM  
Anonymous Jeffrey S. said...

In the true spirit of Julian Simon I'd take your oil bet -- like Simon I have faith that technology (like fracking) will continue to enable us to find new sources of oil and at the same time allow us to use alternative sources of energy more effectively.

So what's the bet?

September 17, 2013 10:58 AM  
Blogger ziel said...

I would agree that one's not a no-brainer - technology could reduce demand while increasing supply - but I doubt it could that much.

But my real point wasn't to literally take bets, but to make some rather obvious predictions that essentially undercut the globalist view of progress spouted by the likes of Fareed Zakaria and Tom Friedman. No, a large immigrant population isn't going to make California a more prosperous state. No, democracy is not going to flourish throughout the world.

I gave the establishment a nod in my prediction that temperatures would not be lower than today. Since the secular trend over the last 35 years has been clearly upward, that seems an easy one.

September 18, 2013 8:59 AM  
Blogger Unknown said...

How about US worker productivity?

September 18, 2013 7:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who are you, ziel (lying eyes)?
Just curious as to your profile (location, age, etc.). Your blog is very interesting.

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