Your Lying Eyes

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29 March 2006

The Return of the Ice Age

You remember Dr. Abdusamatov, the Russian astronomer who predicted another 'little ice age' later this century based on his readings of solar cycles? The release of "Ice Age 2" reminded me to follow up on this story. I found a Pravda article that provides a lot more background. [NOTE: Due to the rather unartful nature of the translation provided by, the following excerpts are best read in a thick Russian accent ala' Boris Badenov.]

First off, Dr. A. is no two-bit telescope jockey - he is "chief of the Space Exploration Department of the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian part of the International Space Station, Doctor of Physical Sciences, Khabibullo Abdusamatov" thank you very much. Dr. A. notes that there are three types of solar cycles - an 11 year, 100 year, and 200 year. As far as the 11 and 100 year cycles, not to worry. It's the 200 year cycle that's a real bugger.
The theory, the scientist told Pravda.Ru, was not considered a common scientific theory in the world. “The whole world has recognized the global warming theory, which pictures catastrophic situations in the future. I do not march in step with the world at this point. However, my theory has raised a certain interest in other countries. Hardly had I made a statement to RIA Novosti when I received several messages from scientists living in the USA, Iceland and other countries. They wanted to know more of my theory. They also want to know if I have delivered a detailed report on the matter and where it was published,” the scientist said.
Here's another roughly translated site proposing a powerful 200 year cycle and relating it to major historical events. However, Dr. Aleksei Babushkin is more reassuring:
Temperature changes periodically occur in different parts of the planet. However, it is not an irreversible process. Nature controls itself – a continuing universal drop of temperatures will not happen. All that global cold and heat has been made up by American film directors.
Another scientist, Pavel Demchenko, is not so quick to dismiss other climate change concerns:
An analysis of the average empirical evidence on Earth shows that the human civilization will most likely have to experience the global warming. The year 2005 set a record of the average temperature on the surface of the globe that has ever been registered during the history of scientific observations.
The global temperature increase of ~1 degree c. in the last century is consistent with the impact of Abdusamatov's 200-year cycle.
Mr. Abdusamatov's theory corresponds with the results of the research about the increase of Earth's temperatures in the 20th century, which makes many scientists continue the trend of the future warming. Abdusamatov has made an opposite conclusion about the cold period, which is to follow the warm era. However, both the possible cold and warm weather periods are characterized with a change of Earth's temperature by only one degree Centigrade.
Well, hopefully he's right. With the Chinese and Indian economies only starting to grow, significant reductions in greenhouse gases over the coming decades seem rather unlikely, barring some dramatic technology developments. I think global cooling will be a lot easier to deal with.


Blogger FuturePundit said...

I figure that the AI robots won't be as sensitive to cold or heat as we are. Once they turn on us and replace us the climate debate will come to an end.

March 30, 2006 11:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

global cooling won't be 'easier to deal with' imo - it will be a far more daunting challenge than warming could ever become.

July 09, 2007 10:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I note you do not give a link for the "Dr. Aleksei Babushkin" quote. My Russian studies are 40 years behind me, but "Staraya Babushka" meaning "very old grandmother" is a phrase I still remember. Also, a Google search on that name turns up only your blog. Thus, I suggest your quote might in English be called an "old wives' tale."

Nevertheless, I thank you for the other useful links. I am a retired astrophysicist. I have tentatively concluded that (a) the sun is the driver of the (minor so far) global average temperature changes we have seen, and (b) somebody "up there" may be teaching humans a lesson, by giving our world-wide politicians enough time to go far out on a limb (an ice sheet?), before breaking it off...

February 08, 2008 11:01 AM  
Blogger ziel said...

Thanks docduke - I found this link from Pravda quoting the good doctor Babushkin. I didn't think I made it up - I'm nowhere near that clever.

I'm happy to hear your skeptical about global warming. I don't wish to see all the bad things they're predicting actually happen, and the more smart people who express doubts the better I feel.

February 08, 2008 6:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These old posts are interesting as evidence of changing opinions. Especially notice the arrogant blustering tone taken in 2006. The sneer may be wiped off this person's lips soon. It is now 2009 and it is getting colder.

February 09, 2009 12:55 PM  
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