Just Walk Away, Renee
The Times has an entertaining article on how the rich are walking away from their homes at a much faster pace than the middle class. It displays a Capra-esque disdain for the moralss of the wealthy in contrast to the more ethically-sound middle class.
But all that aside, this is one big reason why any upward growth in housing prices needs to be taken with a grain of salt - as more-and-more high priced homes are the targets of distressed sales, the average sale price will go up, even though the overall health of the real-estate market is not improving.
Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population. By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.The reporter does not shy away from inferring the underlying motive:
Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment. “The rich are different: they are more ruthless,” said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s senior economist...The article concentrates on Silicon Valley, but also points to Chicago.
The CoreLogic data suggest that the rich do not seem to have concerns about the civic good uppermost in their mind, especially when it comes to investment and second homes. Nor do they appear to be particularly worried about being sued by their lender or frozen out of future loans by Fannie Mae, possible consequences of default.
The sheriff in Cook County, Ill., is increasingly in demand to evict foreclosed owners in the upscale suburbs to the north and west of Chicago — like Wilmette, La Grange and Glencoe...“I’ve never seen the wealthy hit like this before,” Mr. Lowman said. “They made their plans based on the best of all possible scenarios — that their incomes would continue to grow, that real estate would never drop. Not many had a plan B.”“I’ve never seen the wealthy hit like this before,” Mr. Lowman said. “They made their plans based on the best of all possible scenarios — that their incomes would continue to grow, that real estate would never drop. Not many had a plan B.”Which reminds me of Steve Sailer's description of Obama's financial plan:
1. Borrow against home equity and consume.Of course for the Obama's it all worked out - he got himself appointed to a State Senate committe overseeing hospitals followed by Michele's $200k promotion from the hospital she worked for, and then of course he got a big advance on his book.
2.
3. Get rich!
But all that aside, this is one big reason why any upward growth in housing prices needs to be taken with a grain of salt - as more-and-more high priced homes are the targets of distressed sales, the average sale price will go up, even though the overall health of the real-estate market is not improving.
2 Comments:
I think the statistical analysis the NYT cited was misleading -- saying that the default rate on million dollar plus mortgages is higher than on lower mortgages is confusing. There just aren't that many million dollar mortgages outstanding in this country, and a large fraction of them are from the Bubble years and Bubble places. Mortgages going back to the 1990s or 1980s are seldom defaulted upon because owners have built up equity and prices are still well up.
The premise seems correct that the rich view it as business decision, not the moral obligation that banks try to sell to get you to pay. They want there money to work, not to work for there money like the average guy.
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