How Will It Play Out?

A year from now, how will things look? Here's some ideas:

• The Obama stimulus package has revitalized the nation's economy, leading to a surge in consumer spending. China and Japan are so impressed with this performance, and now look so favorably on America's plans to invest in wind and solar energy and education they eagerly buy up all new Treasury issues rather than pump money into their own domestic economies. America is clearly on the rebound, and Americans are optimistic about the future.
  
• Due to widespread civil unrest, including some high-profile self-defense shootings re-labeled as hate crimes, President Obama has declared Martial Law across most of the country, deploying National Guard and even regular armed services personnel in most large cities to quell rioting.
  
• Unemployment has reached 15%; many of the most familiar and venerable companies have ceased to exist; most retail stores and restaurants are shuttered; pension funds are largely liquidated; several states and a number of cities have defaulted on their bonds; meanwhile, in Washington, President Obama has convened an "Education Summit" to look for "common ground" on ideas for reforming our education system.
  
• Citing a national emergency like no other in our nation's history, a group of military officers have taken control of the government and instituted emergency measures in order to halt the hyperinflation that has decimated the dollar in the wake of China and Japan's dumping of U.S. Treasuries to fund their own stimulus measures.
  
• Barack Obama is still president, but his position is largely ceremonial as a small group of senators and congressmen have formed, with the implicit backing of most of their colleagues, a de facto executive council governing the country via a novel use of the appropriations process, rendering Obama's vetoes useless and ensuring cooperation of departmental executives.
  
• Due to a string of failures in the banking and insurance sectors, forced consolidation has resulted in only two or three banks and two or three insurers remaining. The Obama administration exercises tight control over their operations, and they effectively act as arms of the executive branch. In fact, most of the economy is now running under the authority of federally-mandated "councils" consisting of coalitions of financial, labor, and community organizations who direct employment, location, supply and pricing decisions for firms. Shortages are common and unemployment remains high, but otherwise conditions are stable and no widespread panic or hunger is in evidence. Health care is effectively nationalized. The Ways and Means committee passes a new tax bill raising rates on wealthy taxpayers earning over $80,000 a year.
  
• Due to a dramatic policy reversal about 8 months ago, when President Obama, under intense congressional pressure, announced an end to bailouts, forced a complete reckoning of the financial health of all troubled firms, instituted tough financial regulatory reform, and proposed a revised, austere budget with a small deficit, unemployment has been in reverse, business activity has grown and investors have returned to the markets with fresh new vigor. The recovery appears to be in full swing with no sign of retrenchment in the foreseeable future.
  

Any thoughts on which of the above is the least likely?